By Solomon Odunayo
Raoul Pal, Former Goldman Sachs Executive, has revealed that he believes the price of Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest digital currency by market cap, has the potential to hit $20,000 in the bull cycle, based on Metcalfe’s Law.
Revealing parts of his next Global Macro Investor (GMI) research, Raoul Pal said on social media that it’s “all Metcalfe´s Law,” and that “ETH = BTC” whether investors like it or not. He started pointing towards a model his team created to demonstrate Metcalfe’s Law on the BTC network using active addresses and the cryptocurrency’s price, as well as market capitalization.
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Pal, who before founding macroeconomic and investment strategy research service Global Macro Investor (GMI) in 2005 managed a fund for Man GLG and worked at Goldman Sachs, then pointed out Ethereum looks like BTC in its early days, based on the growing number of active addresses.
You are your behavior…. pic.twitter.com/IWaKEGF6R0
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) January 7, 2021
Metcalfe’s Law, it’s worth noting, states the effect of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes in said network. Pal then added charts showing that Ethereum’s growth is very similar to that of BTC and that Metcalfe’s Law “seems to be the key to price for both ETH and BTC.”
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He added, however, the market capitalization of ETH is growing faster than that of bitcoin at the same point, based on the first one million active addresses.
Crypto Bomb:
Ok, I'm leaking some GMI early… (not published yet – tomorrow a.m.)
I will eventually publish in Real Vision too (this article only). I push back strongly the Pfeffer view and the "shitcoin" view.
It's all Metcalfe's Law, baby… and ETH = BTC, like it or not.
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) January 7, 2021
Based on his predictions and the current price of Ethereum, Pal believes the cryptocurrency could see the “exact same” price as BTC last cycle, which means it could go to a new all-time high close to the $20,000 mark.
But ETH market cap is growing faster than BTC at the same point ( from first 1m active addresses) pic.twitter.com/qi46dAhU9F
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) January 7, 2021
CryptoCompare data shows ETH is currently trading at $1,230 and is now close to its previous all-time high of a little over $1,400. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is moving closer to the $40,000 at $38,300. The flagship cryptocurrency, in 2017, hit its latest all-time high, which was only surpassed this year.
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Raoul Pal, as covered, said last month that BTC’s current bull run is “gigantically different” than the one seen in 2017, based on the acceleration of the price after the halving and the structure of the market. In November 2020, he said that he had 98% of his net worth in crypto.
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