By Nathan Ferguson
- BTC price tagged the ascending triangle’s topside trend-line at $44K.
- While flipping 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages highlights bullishness, BTC should conquer some more obstacles.
- A weekly candle close beneath $35K will cancel Bitcoin’s bullish thesis.
Bitcoin (BTC) retests its consolidation’s upper range after the coins rallied for approximately two weeks. The upward move will now encounter many obstacles that will determine the token’s outlook in the coming future.
BTC Ready for Additional Gains
Bitcoin appears prepared for more upside by approaching the ascending triangle’s upper boundary. This technical formation comprises trend lines plotted across higher lows and equal highs. Meanwhile, the pattern predicts an upward move towards $53,855. However, bulls need to overpower multiple challenges to attain this destination.
Though the latest uptrend overcame the 50- and 100-day SMA, BTC should overcome more hurdles to confirm steady surges. The weekly supply area stretching between $45,550 and $51,860 remains a massive challenge that houses the 200-day Simple Moving Average.
For now, a weekly candle close beyond $52K will print a higher peak similar to 2021 December highs, authorizing an uptrend. That might see BTC heading towards the psychological barrier at $60K, translating to a nearly 36% run-up from the current price, $44,061.
IntoTheBlock indicates that BTC faces an obstacle stretching between $43,719 and $50,874. 5.92 million Addresses that bought nearly 3.15 million Bitcoins at $47,653 average price are out of money. Overcoming this obstacle will not mean a smooth journey since the following investors’ cluster that bought 2.98 million BTCs at $58,153 average price also experiences losses.
The MVRV index determines average loss/profit by investors than invested in Bitcoin within the past month. A surge in MVRV reading shows near-term holders in profit. BTC’s latest buying pressure surge pushed the 30-day MVRV towards 6.5%.
Surprisingly, the index hovered beyond 6% the past three times BTC hit $44,000. Moreover, the index formed a local high and translated to a 15-20% crash. If history means a thing, investors should be cautious and prepared for a possible fall for BTC.
Though it might be easy to remain positive, investors should be ready for bearish cases. Bitcoin’s failure to overcome the ascending triangle’s topside at $44,418 will likely trigger retracements to the bottom trend-line at $40K or $38K. The worst-case will see BTC shattering the $38,895 – $36,398 daily demand zone, catalyzing a crash towards $35K. Any weakness here will see BTC at $30K or lower.
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