Analyst Claims Bitcoin ETF Odds to Secure Approval Increase to 95%
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An analyst places the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF approval this month at 95% as the moment of truth approaches for the SEC’s verdict.

According to an analyst, the possibility of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being ratified this month is currently 95%. This is happening as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) verdict approaches this week.

Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs Edges Closer

On Saturday, an ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, posted a tweet claiming he would ‘possibly stick to 5% at this instance.’ He was referring to the possibility of the regulator dismissing the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications in its possession.

The figure is an improvement from earlier predictions that the possibility of ratification this month was 90%. Eric was replying to a tweet by James Seyffart, another analyst, who postulated the ‘improbable’ scenario in which the Securities and Exchange Commission would dismiss the present applications.

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Gary Gensler, SEC’s chair, said they expect Ark Investment to withdraw its application ‘with guarantees regarding March.’ He dismissed the application ‘using new grounds,’ or disregarding the court order to evaluate Grayscale’s ETF application,’ knowing they would go back to court.’ He also claimed that the current administration might ‘implement interventions to halt this.’

Polymarket’s participants are more careful, placing the possibility of a spot Bitcoin ETF ratification by January 15 at 82%.

Securities and Exchange Commission’s Window of Opportunity

A recent report shows that Bitcoin exchange-traded fund hopefuls have until Monday morning to give last-minute updates to their applications. The regulator has an open window up to January 10 in which it might sanction several applications concurrently.

The initial step in a spot Bitcoin ETF ratification would involve the Securities and Exchange Commission signing off on 19b-4 flings by those intending to list the exchange-traded funds. All submissions were made on Friday by 6 p.m. ET.

Afterwards, the regulator would be required to ratify the issuers’ S-1 applications. The exchange-traded funds might technically start trading the following business day following the two approvals.

Balchunas spoke to a media platform and noted they know about SEC partnering with the issuers of their 19B-4s. Besides, he said they are alternating on drafts. As such, an S-1 update has been witnessed. However, the 19B-4s edits have gone straight to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Their refiling is yet to happen.

Balchunas said that when they see the refiled 19B-4s, they will realize that the Securities and Exchange Commission has eventually approved them. He also said that if the regulator ratifies a Bitcoin ETF, the asset class’s worth might amount to ‘$10B in a year.’

Exchange-Traded Fund Becomes ‘iTunes of Bitcoin’

In a statement sent to a media outlet, Benjamin Dean, a digital assets director at WisdomTree, a Bitcoin ETF applicant, equated a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund to the ‘iTunes of Bitcoin.’ According to him, a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would offer the dependability, security, and understanding of an ETF model to this asset in the United States. As such, ‘it could be easier to expose institutional investors to the asset.’   

Others doubt the approval of an exchange-traded fund. An earlier poll of financial advisors Bitwise showed that only 39% believe United States investors will access a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund this year. Amid a crunch time looming on the Security and Exchange Commission’s verdict, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $44,000.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs will end the lengthy wait for the product stretching back nearly a decade. The US investment community are anticipating approval signified by the SEC, engaging in deliberative talks with various applicants.

The recent round of talks reflects a fine-tuning of a few issues that the firms seeking to issue spot Bitcoin ETFs readily integrated and revised their filings. The approval is projected to make traditional finance and decentralized ecosystem integration a reality. 

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Michael Scott

By Michael Scott

Michael Scott is a skilled and seasoned news writer with a talent for crafting compelling stories. He is known for his attention to detail, clarity of expression, and ability to engage his readers with his writing.

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