By Michael Scott
Analysts forecast Bitcoin to hit the $80-90k range in Donald Trump’s victory, though it could sink to the $30-40k range in Kamala Harris’ win.
A September 9 disclosure by research and brokerage firm Bernstein considers the November election in the US harbors a significant impact on the Bitcoin price. The analysts predict that Bitcoin would experience drastic price movement relative to the candidate that wins the White House race.
Bernstein analysts forecast that the Grand Old Party (GOP) candidate victory will lift bitcoin to the $80,000 – $90,000 range in Q4. The analysts predict a win for Vice President Harris in the forthcoming election would drop Bitcoin to the $30,000 – $40,000 range.
US Politics Influencing Bitcoin Price Forecast
Bernstein analysts elaborate on the stark difference in the price forecasts as stemming from the differing stances that each candidate has on crypto. Republican candidate Trump vocally supports transforming the US into the leader in the digital asset space.
A stark contrast exists in their policy speeches, with Trump boldly mentioning digital assets when outlining plans to transform the US into the BTC mining powerhouse. Additionally, Trump illustrated intentions to appoint a crypto-friendly chair to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Besides, the GOP candidate declared in his address to the Bitcoin Conference 2024 plans to create the national strategic reserve.
Contrastingly, Harris has yet to address crypto in policy statements and speeches. The absence of precise positioning on the crypto leads analysts to project Harris victory, resulting in a less favorable environment for the industry.
Meanwhile, the prediction markets signal optimism for a Trump victory. In particular, Trump has a 5% lead over Harris’ 47% per the Polymarket- a decentralized predictions protocol.
Assessing the presidential election shows Trump leading in vital swing states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. Nonetheless, the Democrat candidate is leading in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Are Regulatory Hurdles Eroding Trust in Crypto?
The crypto ecosystem has, in recent years, confronted significant challenges, among them regulatory hurdles and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The regulatory actions targeting the major crypto companies erode trust in the industry. Similarly, hawkish policies behind the interest rate hike drained liquidity from the decentralized finance protocols.
The crypto industry is navigating the headwinds, with Bitcoin showing resilience to surge 112% over the past 12 months. Bernstein analysts consider that a favorable regulatory environment could eliminate the risk barriers for financial institutions. The analysts predict that such an outcome could make digital assets more competitive for institutional investment.
The potential for Bitcoin to experience wide price swings relative to the election outcome underscores cryptocurrencies’ volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Moreover, it highlights the essence of US politics, shaping global policies and the future of the digital asset sector.
In the past, Bernstein has offered a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, setting ambitious price levels. The analysts projected $200,000 by Q4 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1M in 2033.
The projects suggest Bernstein is bullish on BTC prospects in the long term beyond the short-term political outcomes.
While the US presidential election is held on November 5, the campaigns are approaching the homestretch period. The candidates could further clarify their stance regarding crypto regulation and adoption. Clarity from Trump and Harris could provide more insight into the digital assets’ future in the country.
Vocal Bitcoiners Bullish on Recovery
MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor lived to his vocal Bitcoin reputation with a bullish forecast conveyed to his millions of X followers. Saylor reiterated his pronunciation on Monday during CNBC’s Squawk Box show that Bitcoin could skyrocket to $13 million in 21 years.
Saylor echoes Bernstein’s bullish prediction that Bitcoin accounts for 0.1% of global money. Additionally, the MicroStrategy executive chair considers Bitcoin will absorb 7% of the money mass, predominantly from the gold market.
Besides Bernstein and Saylor, Bitcoin witnessed a bullish prediction from NBA legend Scottie Pippen, who stated earlier this month that BTC would surge above $84,650 post-November 5.
A glance at the Bitcoin price movement shows the price hovers within the $56,000 – 58,000 range. At press time, Bitcoin is down 0.7% in the past 24 hours to change hands at $56,459.51, per CoinGecko data.