By Norah ODonnell
XRP’s monthly volatility has dropped to its lowest levels ever recorded, nearing the range that preceded the 60,000% price gain in 2017-2018.
The XRP (XRP) market now shows patterns that mirror the conditions preceding its massive 60,000% price rally in 2018.
XRP’s Monthly Volatility Plunges To Record-Low
Notably, the Bollinger Band Width (BBW) on XRP’s monthly chart reached a new low in July, reflecting years of the XRP/USD trading pair moving within a significantly narrower trading range.
From a technical point of view, these periods of low volatility can mostly precede major price changes and movements. On that note, when the bands are narrow, it indicates that a breakout, either downward or upward, might be imminent as the market transitions back to increased volatility.
For example, XRP’s BBW was the narrowest in the 2016-2017 session, accompanying a flatlining price action within the $0.0050-0.0090 range. That was followed by a 66,000% price breakout, with the XRP monthly volatility, as shown by the BBW readings, surging from 66.50 to as high as 982.22.
This time around, XRP’s consolidation has already lasted twice as long as during the 2016-2017 episode, whole monthly volatility has been significantly lower. As a result, some analysts like Tony Severino, expect a massive price breakout in the XRP space.
Can XRP Repeat Its 60,000% Surge?
On the monthly timeframe, XRP’s current value of almost $0.62 is close to the middle Bollinger Band. The positioning near the middle band normally highlights balanced market forces, with neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum.
XRP’s monthly relative strength index (RSI) reading of about 53 shows the same neutral sentiment in the market.
Nevertheless, XRP/USD is trading above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that the market is slightly tilted toward the bullish side. Coupling this with the similarity in the Bollinger Bandwidth contraction of the 2016-2017 trading session, the indicator raises the potential of another massive price movement.
Notably, XRP’s massive symmetrical triangle may be hinting at the same, showing an upside continuation if it develops after a strong price rally.
The breakout target of a symmetrical triangle is acquired by measuring the maximum distance between its upper and lower trendlines and adding it to the breakout point. Applying the same to XRP’s monthly chart introduces its upside target to $14.75, up nearly 2,200% from the current price levels.
Based on a fundamental perspective, the narratives that might accompany XRP’s upside movements include possible crypto-friendly regulations in the United States in case Donald Trump is reelected and the conclusion of the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit.
Nevertheless, an XRP breakout scenario might take months to play out, possibly after its triangle’s upper and lower trendlines converge in August 2025. In the meantime, and decisive breakdown below the lower trendline risks invalidating the long-term bullish scenario.
$600M XRP Token Release To Push August Crypto Unlocks To $1.5B
August is shaping to be a major month for token unlocks, with just shy of $1.5 billion in tokens being released into the market.
Almost $1.5 billion in tokens from major crypto projects are expected to be unlocked in August, with 1 billion XRP tokens, worth $609 million at current prices, making up a huge part of the month’s total on August 1.
Ripple, the company behind the XRP Ledger blockchain and its XRP token, has unlocked 1 billion tokens on the first day of every month since 2017. It utilizes many main escrow wallets, including Ripple (24) and Ripple (25), to evenly split these unlocks every month.
Nonetheless, Ripple might aim to re-lock much of the newly released XRP. Ripple relocked 800 million XRP from its June 1 unlock; nonetheless, it still made moves to sell nearly 300 million XRP tokens worth $182 million, based on TradingView data.
While nearly 1 billion XRP tokens are unlocked at the beginning of every month, the actual amount of XRP released into circulation might be less than that because of a re-escrow process, wrote XRP Ledger in a 2017 blog post.
Other notable unlocks in August include those from layer-1 network Avalanche and cross-chain bridging platform Wormhole, releasing a cumulative $449 million worth of tokens, per Token Unlocks data.
On August 3, Wormhole is set to unlock 33.3% of its circulating supply, amounting to 600 million Wormhole (W) tokens worth $180.5 million. It comes after conducting its much-awaited airdrop launch on April 4.
On August 20, Avalanche will unlock 2.4% of the circulating supply of its Avalanche (AVAX) tokens, amounting to 9.4 million AVAX valued at $268 million.
Despite all these factors, XRP’s fundamentals show that it might be preparing for a massive surge in the coming months.